Primary Elections and the Quality of Elected Officials∗

In this paper we argue that the literature underestimates the value of primaries, because it focuses on overall average effects. The value of primaries is likely to vary across situations. We argue that primary elections are most needed in safe constituencies, where one party’s candidate will have a large advantage in the general election – even if that party’s candidate is “low quality”. In safe constituencies, it is the dominant party’s primary that in most cases determines the winner. Moreover, if the main role of elections is to select good candidates, then primaries in open seat races are particularly consequential. In this paper we show, first, that many voters live in states, counties or congressional districts that are dominated by one party. In fact, this is true for about 60% of all congressional districts. Thus, safe constituencies loom large in the U.S. elections. Second, we present evidence that primary elections are especially competitive for the advantaged party in constituencies where one party has a clear advantage in terms of voter loyalties. Finally, we present evidence that a party’s primary elections appear to especially good at selecting “high quality” types and at punishing poor performance in constituencies where the underlying voter loyalties in the constituency clearly favor that party. Primaries, therefore, appear to be especially valuable when effective two-party competition is lacking. ∗Preliminary draft. We thank Jeff Frieden, Fernando Martel, Soccoro Puy Segura, Pablo Querubin, Ken Shepsle, Enrico Spolaore, Matthew Stephenson, and Dustin Tingley for their helpful comments. We thank Abuchi Agu, Stacey Hall, and Kendall Hope Tucker for their excellent research assistance. This paper is part of ongoing projects supported by National Science Foundation grants SES-0617556 and SES-0959200. The opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this manuscript do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.